IT is not incorrect to say that the rise in the material wellbeing of humankind during the last two centuries has resulted in an exponential increase in energy consumption. This upsurge has drastically altered the energy mix, from domestically-collected traditional biomass-based fuel to fossil fuel. Fossil fuel, cheaper to transport and easier to use, provided the much needed impetus for industrialisation. Industrialisation brought revolutionary changes in social, political as well as economic landscapes. Energy consumption is closely co-related to the income levels of the countries.

The past few decades have seen China growing at a frantic pace which has created an insatiable demand for natural resources. The sheer scale of growth can be judged from a single factor — sales of automobiles increased in China from 1.9 million in 2010 to more than 22 million last year. It is installing more than 100,000 MW of power capacity annually to keep its workshops running. Most of these power plants run on coal, which is the dirtiest of all fuels. China has already crossed the US as the leading energy consumer and carbon emitter to become the global leader. This has happened despite China’s per capita income being only one-fifth of the United States.

The increase in energy demand in emerging markets is simultaneous with falling oil and gas production in Europe and other countries of the world. Moreover, major nuclear accidents such as those of Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi have dented the hope of cheap nuclear power. Renewable sources of energy are still in their infancy and have a long way to go before being able to dent fossil energy demand. Coal, oil and gas will be the major sources of energy for the foreseeable future.

It is in this context that Daniel Yergin, a foremost authority on energy and energy-politics, has written a lucid account of the techno-political impact of the changing energy world. In his opinion, the changing dynamics of energy will reshape the world order and is tantamount to the remaking of the modern world. He understands the severity of the problems faced by the world and the urgency for a coherent policy to tackle these issues. He is also mindful of the fact that it is virtually impossible to make a common energy policy for industrialised countries, energy exporting countries, China, and the rest of emerging countries.

The pace of increase in energy demand, particularly oil and gas demand, has significantly changed the economic character of the world and has created cash-rich energy behemoths like Russia and Saudi Arabia. The oil-exporting countries have amassed massive revenues and have started to play an ever increasing role in world politics. Almost all of the oil-exporting countries are politically non-democratic. Moreover, the release of monstrous amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is putting tremendous stress on an already fragile global environment.

The geo-political changes in the world, led by our energy demands, are tremendous. They are leading the world to a precarious situation and may herald a new world. The world is already witnessing “great games” in the awarding of energy contracts.

Yergin reminds us that human ingenuity has always resolved the impending energy crises and it is not the first time the world is faced with the threat of “peak oil” — the possibility of oil production falling. Eulogising the efforts of numerous people that were at the forefront of providing solutions to the energy crisis, he is quite correct in saying that industrialisation owes a lot to the untiring efforts of those people. Yergin’s foresightedness can see the solutions to present crises and his book is replete with such examples.

While parsing various solutions, he has noticed that the introduction of newer technologies can arrest the decline in oil production from existing fields and in some cases, may also increase production. Oil companies are already opening new frontiers, from polar oil, shale oil, oil sand and kerosene. A similar situation is faced in gas production with shale gas playing a major role in future gas production. Yergin also sees nuclear renaissance in several parts of the world, including Europe, despite the recent nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi. When it comes to the dirtiest of all fuels — coal — he is hopeful that future technologies, such as carbon capture, will play a role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Renewable sources of energy also present incredible potential to solve the present energy crises. Yergin has called renewables the “fourth fuel,” after coal, oil and gas and is extremely hopeful the current pace of growth in renewables will continue unabated. Wind and solar technologies are witnessing double-digit growth and the cost of solar energy is falling. Wind and solar have already approached grid parity at several locations without government subsidy.

We can also not disregard the importance of the “fifth fuel,” that is fuel efficiency, which will change the rules of the game in the 21st century. Japan is already setting an example by codifying its traditional practice of “monttainai” (not wasting resources) into an energy conservation law. If the practice is repeated worldwide, it will impede energy demand. While the future of energy is uncertain, one thing is certain — the energy mix of the future will be much more diversified and complex and the quest for solutions will continue in the foreseeable future.

The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World

(Energy)

By Daniel Yergin

Penguin Books, US

ISBN 0143121944

832pp.